← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 57% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.84 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 18% | 16% | 5.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 19' | 🟨 | David Luiz · Chelsea |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mousa Dembélé · Tottenham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 51' | ⚽ | Victor Moses · Chelsea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Willian · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 148.00 | 879.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1741.66 | 1737.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 60.45 | -5.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 74.10 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 28.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 25.44 |
| state index | 1.86 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 16.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |