← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 79% | 69% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 19% | 7.25 | value: +35% |
| Burnley win | 8% | 12% | 13.00 | value: +61% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Dean Marney · Burnley |
| 34' | 🟨 | Dean Marney · Burnley |
| 37' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Man City |
| 60' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 66' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nolito · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1517.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1454.72 | 1753.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.01 | -2.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| league points | 14.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 67.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -16.40 | 11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | 2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.93 | 29.95 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 34.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |