← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Nov 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 51% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | fair |
| Burnley win | 20% | 17% | 4.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 16' | ⚽ | James Morrison · West Brom |
| 37' | ⚽ | Darren Fletcher · West Brom |
| 64' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 721.00 | 1512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1524.67 | 1467.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.29 | 20.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 33.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -15.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.98 | -2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 30.17 | 27.28 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -1.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 143.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |