← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 65% | 67% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.66 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 14% | 12% | 6.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Middlesbrough |
| 41' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 51' | 🟨 | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 64' | 🟨 | David Luiz · Chelsea |
| 73' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
| 74' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1115.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1452.12 | 1737.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.34 | 65.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 73.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 11.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 26.57 |
| state index | -0.05 | 1.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 351.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |