← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 38% | 45% | 2.58 | value: +16% |
| Watford win | 32% | 26% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 12' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
| 21' | 🟨 | Camilo Zúñiga · Watford |
| 32' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
| 65' | 🟨 | Danny Drinkwater · Leicester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 141.00 | 507.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1513.75 | 1653.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.40 | -20.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 29.54 | 28.65 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 119.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |