← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 43% | 44% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | value: +4% |
| Hull win | 28% | 25% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Papy Djilobodji · Sunderland |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 62' | ⚽ | Victor Anichebe · Sunderland |
| 72' | 🟨 | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
| 84' | ⚽ | Victor Anichebe · Sunderland |
| 89' | 🟨 | Papy Djilobodji · Sunderland |
| 89' | 🟥 | Papy Djilobodji · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 141.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1474.35 | 1437.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.42 | -27.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.60 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 28.28 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 145.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |