← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 58% | 45% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 34% | 4.04 | value: +37% |
| Swansea win | 18% | 21% | 5.53 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 21' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
| 33' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mike Van der Hoorn · Swansea |
| 76' | 🟨 | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
| 80' | 🟨 | Juan Mata · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 36.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 5.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1512.06 | 1668.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.95 | -24.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 26.14 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 230.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |