← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 76% | 72% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 22% | 6.30 | value: +36% |
| Watford win | 8% | 7% | 11.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 30' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
| 43' | ⚽ | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 56' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 57' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 60' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 75' | ⚽ | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 80' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Georginio Wijnaldum · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Georginio Wijnaldum · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 11 |
| 17 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 402.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.24 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1709.57 | 1521.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.82 | -0.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.53 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| league points | 23.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 29.97 |
| state index | 1.19 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 263.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |