← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 58% | 58% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.90 | fair |
| Hull win | 17% | 20% | 5.75 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jordy Clasie · Southampton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Robert Snodgrass · Hull |
| 63' | ⚽ | Michael Dawson · Hull |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ryan Bertrand · Southampton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Maya Yoshida · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 97.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1423.01 | 1663.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.12 | -12.50 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.44 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 25.26 |
| state index | -1.63 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 323.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |