← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 80% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.55 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 7% | 6% | 14.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Adam Forshaw · Middlesbrough |
| 43' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 52' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Middlesbrough |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 127.00 | 1100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1756.93 | 1444.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.60 | 16.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.94 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.02 | 27.55 |
| state index | 1.02 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 137.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |