← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 65% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.61 | value: +18% |
| Everton win | 13% | 17% | 7.40 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Yannick Bolasie · Everton |
| 19' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 20' | ⚽ | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 30' | 🟨 | Phil Jagielka · Everton |
| 42' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 56' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 64' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · Everton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 1 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 127.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1913.16 | 1787.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.34 | -8.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 74.10 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 22.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 27.73 |
| state index | 1.91 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 287.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |