← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 60% | 66% | 1.63 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.40 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 17% | 16% | 5.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Bournemouth |
| 11' | ⚽ | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 30' | 🟨 | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 33' | ⚽ | Victor Anichebe · Sunderland |
| 43' | 🟨 | Steven Pienaar · Sunderland |
| 59' | 🟨 | Steven Pienaar · Sunderland |
| 59' | 🟥 | Steven Pienaar · Sunderland |
| 70' | 🟨 | Victor Anichebe · Sunderland |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lynden Gooch · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1496.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1514.84 | 1461.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.61 | -36.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 27.24 |
| state index | 0.26 | -1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 465.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |