← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 56% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.76 | fair |
| Hull win | 18% | 22% | 5.51 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Watford |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ryan Mason · Hull |
| 58' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) | Michael Dawson · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 120.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1515.47 | 1429.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.47 | -51.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.44 | 54.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -15.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 9.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.78 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 30.13 | 28.41 |
| state index | 0.03 | -1.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 233.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |