← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 68% | 52% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.87 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 12% | 27% | 8.14 | value: +119% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 30' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Sunderland |
| 33' | 🟨 | Didier N'Dong · Sunderland |
| 41' | 🟨 | Steven Pienaar · Sunderland |
| 48' | 🟨 | Papy Djilobodji · Sunderland |
| 64' | 🟨 | Petr Čech · Arsenal |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 71' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Arsenal |
| 76' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Arsenal |
| 78' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kieran Gibbs · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 120.00 | 7334.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1468.37 | 1763.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.99 | 17.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.33 | 63.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.22 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | 1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.56 | 5.22 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.07 | 27.07 |
| state index | -1.10 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 383.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |