← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 39% | 38% | 2.52 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.13 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 30% | 34% | 3.29 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 25' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 39' | ⚽ | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 56' | ⚽ | Stewart Downing · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 3 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1093.00 | 1489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1427.31 | 1531.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.81 | 25.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.44 | 62.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.56 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 26.00 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 429.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |