← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 56% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 20% | 23% | 4.80 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 18' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 21' | ⚽ | Dejan Lovren · Liverpool |
| 33' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 44' | ⚽ | Joël Matip · Liverpool |
| 49' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 62' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 72' | 🟨 | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 667.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1510.42 | 1699.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.15 | 28.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.44 | 63.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | — |
| league points | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.33 | 6.56 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 25.77 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 298.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |