← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 58% | 55% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.01 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 17% | 20% | 5.61 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Jack Rodwell · Sunderland |
| 27' | 🟨 | Didier N'Dong · Sunderland |
| 31' | 🟨 | Edimilson Fernandes · West Ham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Steven Pienaar · Sunderland |
| 68' | 🟨 | Winston Reid · West Ham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Winston Reid · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 509.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1551.47 | 1474.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.56 | -43.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.63 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 26.68 |
| state index | -0.42 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 387.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |