← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 38% | 40% | 2.60 | fair |
| Hull win | 33% | 33% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
| 50' | ⚽ | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ryan Mason · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 82.00 | 1270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1443.13 | 1523.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.75 | -12.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.86 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.85 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.13 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 28.93 |
| state index | -1.40 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 146.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |