← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.73 | value: +8% |
| Burnley win | 17% | 19% | 5.90 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Scott Arfield · Burnley |
| 26' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 39' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Séamus Coleman · Everton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Yannick Bolasie · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Scott Arfield · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1482.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1438.03 | 1602.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.51 | 13.68 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.25 | 59.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.88 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.68 | 29.06 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 62.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |