← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 73% | 77% | 1.35 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.30 | fair |
| Burnley win | 9% | 6% | 10.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Steven Defour · Burnley |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 52' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dean Marney · Burnley |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 34 | Shots | 6 |
| 14 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 137.00 | 1476.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1676.11 | 1442.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.56 | 2.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.89 | 66.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.22 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 28.11 |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 325.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |