← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 43% | 45% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.27 | fair |
| Watford win | 27% | 24% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Antonio Barragán · Middlesbrough |
| 38' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Middlesbrough |
| 42' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 54' | ⚽ | José Holebas · Watford |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Watford |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1080.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1428.57 | 1503.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.39 | 17.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 59.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| league points | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.29 | 4.43 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 29.74 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |