← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 50% | 44% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.61 | value: +12% |
| Sunderland win | 22% | 24% | 4.36 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 55' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1263.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| elo | 1512.54 | 1485.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.17 | -27.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.43 | 50.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -12.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.86 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 29.12 | 25.64 |
| state index | -0.87 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 220.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |