← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 55% | 51% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
| Hull win | 20% | 22% | 4.99 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Charlie Daniels · Bournemouth |
| 19' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ryan Mason · Hull |
| 41' | ⚽ | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 44' | 🟨 | Robert Snodgrass · Hull |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
| 59' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Hull |
| 65' | ⚽ | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
| 83' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 88' | ⚽ | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1475.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| elo | 1514.17 | 1456.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.68 | -28.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.29 | 54.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -17.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.71 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 27.71 |
| state index | -0.06 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 349.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |