← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 39% | 43% | 2.51 | value: +8% |
| Bournemouth win | 32% | 27% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jack Wilshere · Bournemouth |
| 28' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 31' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 41' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
| 50' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 56' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Watford |
| 62' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 65' | ⚽ | Isaac Success · Watford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 92.00 | 1461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1505.35 | 1512.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.49 | 10.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | — |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.45 | 27.71 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 142.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |