← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 39% | 42% | 2.54 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.17 | value: +5% |
| West Brom win | 31% | 25% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Claudio Yacob · West Brom |
| 35' | ⚽ | Nacer Chadli · West Brom |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jan Kirchhoff · Sunderland |
| 69' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
| 83' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 92.00 | 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1486.78 | 1518.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.57 | -5.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 67.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.17 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | -1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 29.34 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | -1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 270.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |