← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 67% | 53% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 26% | 4.90 | value: +29% |
| Hull win | 13% | 20% | 7.50 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Victor Moses · Chelsea |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Chelsea |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Hull |
| 61' | ⚽ | Willian · Chelsea |
| 67' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 79' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 61.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1465.64 | 1672.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.12 | -14.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 73.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.40 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.83 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 27.74 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 252.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |