← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 39% | 28% | 2.51 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 31% | 33% | 3.13 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 39% | 3.31 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 61' | ⚽ | Joe Ledley · Crystal Palace |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
| 76' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 85.00 | 632.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1498.04 | 1514.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.14 | 9.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| league points | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.41 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 28.17 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.84 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 400.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |