← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 78% | 74% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 18% | 6.95 | value: +28% |
| Hull win | 8% | 7% | 12.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Tom Huddlestone · Hull |
| 17' | ⚽ | Adam Lallana · Liverpool |
| 19' | 🟨 | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 29' | 🟥 | Ahmed El-Mohamady · Hull |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 36' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ryan Mason · Hull |
| 51' | ⚽ | David Meyler · Hull |
| 52' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | James Milner · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 32 | Shots | 2 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 359.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1683.75 | 1472.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.84 | 23.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 58.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 27.68 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 174.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |