← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 73% | 67% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 25% | 5.75 | value: +42% |
| Sunderland win | 10% | 8% | 9.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Javier Manquillo · Sunderland |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jason Denayer · Sunderland |
| 59' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lee Cattermole · Sunderland |
| 65' | 🟨 | Didier N'Dong · Sunderland |
| 81' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Sunderland |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Papy Djilobodji · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟥 | Adnan Januzaj · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| coach days |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| 810.00 |
| 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1721.41 | 1501.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.47 | -29.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.81 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.25 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -2.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.25 | 5.75 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.25 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.12 | 25.23 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.82 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 378.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |