← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 61% | 44% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 39% | 4.19 | value: +65% ⚠ |
| Hull win | 16% | 17% | 6.12 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 34' | 🟨 | Santi Cazorla · Arsenal |
| 40' | 🟥 | Jake Livermore · Hull |
| 55' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Arsenal |
| 78' | 🟨 | Petr Čech · Arsenal |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Snodgrass · Hull |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 24 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 47.00 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| 7292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1480.33 | 1746.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.76 | 3.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.67 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.50 | 82.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.75 | 55.50 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 27.83 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 244.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |