← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.89 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 15% | 17% | 6.35 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Maarten Stekelenburg · Middlesbrough |
| 22' | 🟨 | Maarten Stekelenburg · Everton |
| 24' | ⚽ | Gareth Barry · Everton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Daniel Ayala · Middlesbrough |
| 42' | ⚽ | Séamus Coleman · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · Everton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| coach days |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| 108.00 |
| 1051.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1605.60 | 1434.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.75 | 3.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.51 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.25 | 80.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.50 | 53.75 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.75 | 2.75 |
| squad age | 29.38 | 28.16 |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 170.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |