← Premier League 2016-17 · Fri, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 45% | 46% | 2.19 | fair |
| Liverpool win | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Dejan Lovren · Liverpool |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jordan Henderson · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Willian · Chelsea |
| 61' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 77.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1695.78 | 1671.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.64 | 8.85 |
| eye test v1 | 1.38 | 1.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 76.00 | 70.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.50 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.25 | 81.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | 1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.75 | 6.50 |
| squad age | 28.23 | 26.85 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 286.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |