← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 62% | 47% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 32% | 4.25 | value: +38% |
| Swansea win | 15% | 20% | 6.59 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 26' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 41' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 42' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Swansea |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jordi Amat · Swansea |
| 59' | 🟨 | Thibaut Courtois · Chelsea |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Swansea |
| 62' | ⚽ | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 81' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Terry · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 28 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 254.00 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1548.03 | 1698.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.37 | 18.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 1.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 76.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.33 | 86.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.33 | 61.33 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 2.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 28.06 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 259.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |