← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 50% | 51% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
| Stoke win | 23% | 22% | 4.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Glenn Whelan · Stoke |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 41' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 70' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Adam · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moussa Sissoko · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 1228.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| 802.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1720.87 | 1888.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.56 | -45.36 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.67 | 43.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.67 | 77.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.67 | 54.33 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| squad age | 30.24 | 25.38 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 210.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |