← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 40% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 30% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 38' | ⚽ | Daniel Ayala · Middlesbrough |
| 47' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 60' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| coach days |
| venue | Riverside |
| 1044.00 |
| 618.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1444.60 | 1487.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.26 | -14.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 59.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| league points | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.67 | 76.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.67 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| squad age | 28.10 | 28.45 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 361.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |