← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 60% | 58% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.16 | fair |
| Watford win | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Santi Cazorla · Arsenal |
| 17' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 40' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Odion Ighalo · Watford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 57' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 60' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Watford |
| 89' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Wilshere · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 57.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| 7271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1486.54 | 1732.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.90 | -7.30 |
| eye test v1 | -1.85 | 0.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.50 | 80.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.50 | 55.50 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.97 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 4.50 |
| squad age | 29.99 | 27.03 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |