← Premier League 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Taylor
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Watford win | 55% | 48% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.78 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 19% | 25% | 5.26 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.