← Premier League 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Atkinson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bournemouth win | 47% | 37% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.58 | value: +16% |
| Aston Villa win | 26% | 31% | 3.78 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.