← Premier League 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M Jones
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leicester win | 37% | 35% | 2.66 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 34% | 30% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.35 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.