← Premier League 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L Mason
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 82% | 78% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 15% | 7.99 | value: +16% |
| Aston Villa win | 5% | 7% | 18.14 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 2 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.