← Premier League 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Dean
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Arsenal win | 60% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.98 | fair |
| Burnley win | 15% | 15% | 6.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.