← Premier League 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A Marriner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stoke win | 39% | 48% | 2.54 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.17 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 31% | 23% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.