← Premier League 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N Swarbrick
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 75% | 79% | 1.31 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
| West Brom win | 9% | 6% | 11.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 43 | Shots | 3 |
| 16 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.