← Ligue 1 2026 · regular season · Sat, Aug 22, 06:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Paris FC win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| ES Troyes AC win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ES Troyes AC +0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Paris FC +0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 2 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |