← Eredivisie 2026 · regular season · Sun, Sep 6, 12:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AZ win | 51% | 1.85 |
| SC Heerenveen win | 25% | 3.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AZ +0.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| SC Heerenveen +0.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under | 35% | 2.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |