← Eredivisie 2026 · regular season · Sun, Aug 16, 02:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.75 |
| SC Heerenveen win | 15% | 6.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax −1.25 | 51% | 1.85 |
| SC Heerenveen −1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under | 35% | 2.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |