The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
FC Twente '65 win
44%
2.19
SC Heerenveen win
31%
3.10
Draw
25%
4.00
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
Outcome
Market says
Best price
SC Heerenveen +0.5
54%
1.75
FC Twente '65 +0.5
46%
2.05
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
64%
1.50
Under
36%
2.75
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
66%
1.44
No
34%
2.88
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
55%
1.67
Over 10.5
45%
2.05
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
FC Twente '65 win
2.12
2.15
+1.4%
Draw
3.75
3.85
+2.7%
SC Heerenveen win
3.00
3.15
+5.0%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
0
Half-time score
0
7
Shots
18
4
On target
3
4
Corners
8
7
Fouls
7
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.