The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win
37%
2.60
SBV Excelsior win
37%
2.60
Draw
26%
3.70
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
Outcome
Market says
Best price
SBV Excelsior +0
53%
1.80
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden +0
47%
2.00
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
58%
1.65
Under
42%
2.32
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
62%
1.53
No
38%
2.55
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
51%
1.80
Under 9.5
49%
1.88
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
SBV Excelsior win
2.54
2.60
+2.6%
Draw
3.63
3.40
-6.2%
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win
2.50
2.70
+8.0%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
0
Half-time score
3
11
Shots
18
2
On target
9
5
Corners
8
6
Fouls
11
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.