← Premier League 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C Foy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 72% | 80% | 1.36 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.77 | fair |
| Southampton win | 11% | 7% | 8.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.