← Premier League 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L Probert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chelsea win | 76% | 63% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 23% | 5.89 | value: +34% |
| Stoke win | 8% | 14% | 12.85 | value: +80% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.